Data-Led Forecasts: Off-Market Price and Yield Trends 2025–2028

Off-Market Property Price Forecasts by City

Regional price forecasting requires the synthesis of multiple authoritative sources alongside local economic fundamentals. The following projections integrate Savills, JLL, and Knight Frank data with local planning and employment statistics.

Manchester Price Trajectory 2025-2028

Manchester's current average price of £249,000 positions the city for sustained outperformance driven by supply-demand imbalances:

Growth drivers:

• 10,788 residential units under construction

• 65,000 new jobs projected across Greater Manchester by 2030

Manchester’s housing market is expected to remain undersupplied, with residential construction activity unable to keep pace with demand. Average house prices stood at around £249,000 in mid-2025, while rental values are rising faster, up more than 5% year-on-year. Forecasts suggest the city will continue to deliver above-average growth compared to the UK, driven by strong job creation, large-scale regeneration, and sustained inward investment, positioning Manchester as one of the most resilient regional markets through 2028.

Liverpool Capital Appreciation Prospects

Liverpool's £182,000 average price reflects significant value relative to regeneration pipeline momentum:

Catalysts for growth:

• £37 million from the Levelling Up Fund for transport infrastructure improvements including walking and cycling routes and junction upgrades

• North Docks stadium-led mixed-use development

• Port expansion supporting logistics and professional services employment

Liverpool continues to benefit from major regeneration projects and targeted Levelling Up Fund investment, including investment in transport and infrastructure improvements. Average house prices in the city remain below the national average, creating affordability advantages that support steady demand. Alongside a strong rental market and sustained inward investment, these factors are expected to underpin Liverpool’s resilience and competitiveness through 2028.

Leeds Market Dynamics

Leeds maintains premium pricing at £240,000 average, supported by a diversified economic base and university-driven rental demand:

Value creation factors:

• South Bank regeneration attracting multi-billion investment

• Innovation Arc development improving commercial density

• Affordable Housing Growth Partnership Action Plan aiming to deliver 1,230 new affordable homes per year to meet need.

Leeds faces ongoing housing supply pressures, with the city’s Local Plan requiring over 51,000 new homes by 2033 and affordable housing delivery targeted at more than 1,200 units per year. Recent investment, including £89 million from the West Yorkshire Combined Authority to unlock 5,400 new homes, highlights efforts to address these constraints. Coupled with a strong employment base and significant regeneration activity, Leeds is expected to remain an attractive and resilient housing market through 2028.

These forecasts assume continued economic expansion and completion of major infrastructure projects. Understanding regional market dynamic in off-market property investments is crucial for identifying outperforming sub-markets within each city.

Off-Market Property Yield Forecasts by City and Submarket

Rental yield analysis requires granular postcode-level examination, as city-wide averages mask significant variation in investor returns. Current market conditions favour income-focused strategies, given that rental inflation outpaces capital growth in most northern markets.

Manchester Yield Landscape

Manchester's city-wide gross yield averages 6.3%, with substantial variation across districts:

High-yield opportunities:

• Fallowfield (M14): student-focused properties

• Gorton (M18): regeneration upside potential

• Cheetham Hill (M8): established rental areas

Prime market benchmarks:

• City centre apartments: 5.5%-6.5% gross yields

• Stabilised Build-to-Rent developments: 4.5% net yields

The JLL Big Six report identifies Manchester's rental market as demonstrating the strongest fundamentals among major UK cities outside London, with particular strength in the professional rental sector.

Liverpool Rental Returns Analysis

Liverpool offers some of the UK's highest gross yields, reflecting lower entry costs and strong rental demand:

Postcodes to watch:

• L4 (Anfield/Walton)

• L8 (Toxteth)

• L1 (City centre)

Rental demand drivers:

• University of Liverpool: 28,000+ student population

• Liverpool John Moores: 24,000+ students

• Professional services growth in commercial core

Leeds Yield Distribution

Leeds rental yields reflect the city's diverse tenant base spanning students, young professionals, and families:

Areas to watch:

• Headingley HMOs

• Armley terraces

• City centre apartments

Factors Influencing Yield Changes

Supply pipeline constraints:

1. In Manchester & Salford, about 4,448 new homes were completed in 2024, while housing starts have begun to decline, suggesting a tightening of supply.

2. In Leeds, the council’s most recent housing land supply statement shows that while over 53,000 homes have secured planning permission since 2017, there remains concern that many permissions are not coming forward fast enough to meet ongoing demand.

3. Liverpool's residential development remains concentrated in city centre, limiting suburban supply.

Rental demand acceleration:

• UK private rents increased 7% year-on-year to May 2025

• Northern cities capturing relocating professionals seeking value alternatives to southern markets

• Student accommodation pressures driving rental premiums in university-adjacent areas

Assessing risk against value in off-market property investment opportunities is key to structuring optimal investment strategies across different time horizons and risk profiles.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Off-Market Property

Inflation and Economic Policy

The OBR's Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecasts monthly CPI inflation to reach about 3.8 % in July 2025, before falling, and expects CPI inflation to return “around the 2 % target” from mid-2026 onwards. This trajectory supports continued monetary policy easing and improved mortgage affordability conditions.

Key inflation impacts:

• Asset price appreciation in line with general price levels

• Rental income growth maintaining real purchasing power

• Construction cost pressures supporting existing stock valuations

Fiscal policy considerations:

• Council tax and business rates reforms may affect holding costs

• SDLT thresholds and non-resident surcharges influence acquisition costs

• Capital gains tax treatment affects optimal holding periods

Government Policy and Regeneration Funding

Strategic government investment programmes create localised value appreciation opportunities for informed investors:

Manchester regeneration catalysts:

• Greater Manchester Growth Locations programme targeting 48,000 new jobs and 75,000 homes by 2030

• MediaCity expansion supporting creative industries employment

• Airport City development attracting international business relocations

Liverpool transformation projects:

• Liverpool City Region CRSTS funding improving connectivity across Merseyside

• Port expansion supporting logistics sector growth

• Culture-led regeneration maintaining tourism appeal

Leeds infrastructure investment:

• South Bank Vision delivering multi-billion private sector investment

• HS2 connectivity enhancing London commuter market potential

• Green energy initiatives attracting sustainable technology companies

These programmes offer opportunities at multiple stages of the strategic off-market acquisition lifecycle ahead of mainstream market recognition.

Regulatory Environment Changes

Renters' Rights Bill implications:

• Section 21 'no-fault' eviction restrictions may reduce supply

• Enhanced tenant security could justify rental premiums

• Professional landlord compliance requirements favour institutional operators

Energy efficiency mandates:

• EPC rating C minimum by 2028 for rental properties

• Green mortgage incentives supporting retrofit investments

• Potential rental premium capture for energy-efficient stock

What These Forecasts Mean for Off-Market Investors

Strategic Investor Profiles and Approaches

First-time and SIPP investors:
Focus on high-yield, low-maintenance opportunities in established rental markets. Leeds Armley terraces and Liverpool L4/L5 properties offer high yields with manageable entry prices. SIPP structures benefit from tax-efficient rental income while building pension fund value through capital appreciation.

Seasoned portfolio operators:
Aggregate opportunities within regeneration zones to capture development uplift. Manchester's growth locations offer potential for land banking strategies, while Liverpool's transport corridor improvements create value-add potential for refurbishment projects. Consider blending BTR blocks with high-yield single-lets for portfolio optimisation.

International investors:
Exploit currency advantages and 2025 SDLT relief windows. Forward-funding BTR or co-living schemes in Manchester and Leeds provide institutional exit potential while capturing development uplift. Sterling weakness creates enhanced returns for dollar—and euro-based investors.

Timing Entry and Exit Points

Let’s look at some hypothetical situations and how investors might approach them.

Optimal acquisition window:

• 2025 H1: Before full mortgage rate repricing flows to retail buyers

• Target properties requiring minor improvements to capture immediate value-add

• Focus on sub-£250,000 price points where institutional competition remains limited

Exit strategy considerations:

1. 2027-2028: Capital growth exceeds 15% cumulative, creating disposal opportunities

2. 2029-2030: First rental inflation moderation may signal yield compression

3. Hold strategies: Energy-efficient properties benefit from regulatory tailwinds

Deal Sourcing and Evaluation Methodologies

Data-driven sourcing approaches:

• Utilise HM Land Registry Price Paid data to identify 12-month undervalued postcodes

• Cross-reference planning applications with delivery timelines to avoid oversupplied areas

• Monitor council housing waiting lists as demand indicators for rental markets

Financial structuring optimisation:

• Bridge-to-term financing pencils at DSCR 1.25x once rates fall below 3.75%

• Lock long-term debt in 2026 to capitalise on rate cycle trough

• Structure profit-share arrangements with distressed developers for sub-market pricing

Due diligence frameworks:

1. Rental demand analysis using local authority housing statistics

2. Planning permission pipeline assessment for supply competition

3. Transport connectivity scoring for long-term value retention

Success in seizing off-market opportunities requires combining macroeconomic awareness with granular local market intelligence to identify value before mainstream recognition drives pricing competition.

Investors who master these dynamics can achieve maximum yields while capturing good capital appreciation over the forecast period. The key lies in understanding that off-market opportunities reward preparation, timing, and local expertise rather than simply access to exclusive deal flow.

If you want to implement these strategies, working with specialists who understand both the data fundamentals and operational requirements is the best place to start for translating market intelligence into portfolio returns. Talk to us at Elite Reality to get a specialist in your corner.