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Featured Article
Social Housing Investment
8 min read

Understanding the Numbers: How Common Are Off-Market Sales in Northern UK Regions?

Off-market sales are rising across Northern England, shaping a hidden yet vital part of the UK property market. Here, we provide essential insight for those seeking strategic advantages in regional investment hotspots.
Deansgate Manchester
Darren Gallagher 387
Written by
Darren Gallagher
Published on
20 August 2025

Off-market property sales make up a significant yet largely invisible component of the UK's property ecosystem. These transactions, conducted privately without public advertising, have grown substantially in recent years, particularly across Northern England's investment hotspots. Understanding the scale, dynamics, and opportunities within this hidden market is essential for off-market property investors' strategic decision-making.

The Rise of Off-Market Sales in the UK

Historical Trend Data: A Five-Year Transformation

Off-market property sales have experienced noteworthy growth, transforming from a niche luxury practice into a substantial market force. Alliance Fund Research revealed that the hidden property market generated £30.9 billion in transactions during 2021, representing 98,235 homes sold without public advertising. This marked a dramatic 51.4% increase from the previous year, establishing 2021 as the third-largest annual total for off-market transactions in the past decade.

The pandemic era proved particularly transformative for off-market activity. Hamptons research demonstrates that London's off-market share doubled from 11% in Q4 2019 to 23% by late 2022, representing the highest levels since comprehensive records began. This trend reflected sellers' preferences for controlled viewings and buyers' appetite for exclusive opportunities during market uncertainty.

Key historical milestones include:

  • 2015–2019: Off‑market sales averaged 10% of all homes nationally, reaching the highest level since records began in 2015

  • 2020: The onset of the COVID‑19 pandemic sparked disruption in on‑market listings, followed by accelerated adoption of off‑market transactions by sellers seeking speed and discretion

  • 2021: Off‑market transactions across Britain reached a total value of approximately £30.9 billion, driven by a 51% increase in the number of off‑market homes sold compared to the previous year

  • 2022-2023: Gradual normalisation but sustained elevation above pre-pandemic levels

  • 2024: According to Hamptons and cited by Bretherton Law, the average price of off‑market homes dropped from £979,000 in 2021 to £858,000 in 2022, reflecting the “filtering down” of that segment

The luxury segment demonstrates particularly strong off-market penetration. In 2023, one in three properties valued at £1 million or above were sold off-market, returning to levels last seen in the record year of 2017. For ultra-prime properties, the statistics prove even more striking: 51% of £2 million-plus homes and 54% of £5 million-plus properties changed hands without public advertising in 2023.

Impact of Market Cycles and Economic Conditions

Economic uncertainty consistently drives off-market activity, with sellers using private sales to "test the waters" during volatile periods. The correlation between market stress and off-market growth appears particularly pronounced during periods of policy uncertainty or economic volatility.

Interest rate fluctuations create significant off-market drivers. Residential property transactions surged 104% year-on-year in March 2025 ahead of the stamp duty deadline, then fell 28% in April compared to the previous year. Such policy-driven volatility encourages sellers to seek more controlled, private sales processes that avoid public market timing pressures.

Current economic conditions continue influencing off-market dynamics:

  • Bank of England base rate maintained at 4.5% through 2025

  • Inflation projected to reach 3.3% by year-end

  • Gradual interest rate reductions anticipated from Q4 2025

  • Continued uncertainty around taxation policy affecting investment decisions

Professional services firms predict off-market activity may moderate as market stability improves, though the fundamental appeal of discretion and exclusivity ensures sustained demand above historical averages.

Regional Data From Manchester, Liverpool, and Leeds

Northern England's property markets have emerged as significant contributors to the UK's off-market sector, driven by affordability advantages, superior rental yields, and substantial regeneration investments creating early-stage opportunities.

Off-Market Transaction Percentages by City

While comprehensive city-specific off-market data remains limited due to transaction privacy, available indicators suggest Northern cities account for approximately 10% of all international property inquiries, up from 5% a decade ago. Hamptons research shows Liverpool particularly stands out, attracting 49% of all international applicants seeking purchases in Northern England.

City

Average Property Price

Annual Growth Rate

Rental Yield Range

Off‑Market Indicators

Manchester

Approx. £242,000 (ONS & HMLR)

19.3% forecast by 2028 (JLL via Select Property)

6.3% average, up to 9% in high-yield areas (CityRise)

High developer pre-sales activity

Liverpool

£186,000–£188,000 (PropertyInvestmentsUK)

14% annual growth to March 2025 (Investropa)

Ranges between 6% to 8% (Investropa)

~49% share of Northern international property enquiries

Leeds

£242,000 as of Jan 2025 (Guinness Homes)

5.9% year-on-year growth as of early 2025 (Guinness Homes); 55% over the past decade, with 21% more by 2026 in some areas (Aspen Woolf)

6.3% average yield reported by Zoopla (RW‑Invest)

Strong institutional buyer presence

Manchester's off-market activity intensifies significantly due to its status as a technology and media hub. The £1 billion MediaCityUK regeneration and ongoing Spinningfields development create distinct investment neighbourhoods appealing to different buyer profiles. Liverpool benefits from major regeneration catalysts, particularly the £5.5 billion Liverpool Waters development.

Types of Properties Most Often Sold Off-Market

Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs) represent a significant portion of off-market activity across Northern regions. HMO Sales, one of the UK's specialist platforms for Houses in Multiple Occupation, advertises an off‑market network of over 2,000 pre‑qualified HMO investors, including high‑net‑worth individuals, property REITs, and student funds. While this indicates strong buyer interest, details on the typical property sizes or geographic distribution (such as across Northern regions or multi-bedroom ranges) are not publicly available.

The most common off-market property types include:

  1. Social Housing HMOs - 3-5 bedroom properties leased to registered housing providers

  2. Student Accommodation - Purpose-built and converted properties near universities

  3. Professional Co-living Spaces - Targeting graduates and young professionals

  4. New-Build Apartments - Developer pre-sales and bulk purchase opportunities

  5. Distressed Assets - Properties requiring renovation or facing forced sales

Social housing HMOs demonstrate particular off-market prominence, typically involving properties leased to registered housing providers under long-term corporate arrangements. Gross HMO yields typically range between 8 % and 12 % versus 5–7 % for single-let properties. A more recent LandlordZone report also shows the North East delivers the highest UK HMO yields, up to 15.4 %.

Student accommodation represents another major off-market category, particularly relevant for Manchester and Leeds where combined university populations exceed hundreds of thousands. HMO investment analysis shows Manchester's twelve universities create sustained demand for purpose-built and converted student properties, with average HMO yields reaching 8-10% compared to traditional buy-to-let properties.

Leeds The One Residences Exterior Streeet

Factors Driving Off-Market Growth in the North

Developer Activity and Pre-Sales Opportunities

Major development activity across Northern England creates substantial off-market opportunities through early-stage investor access and bulk sales arrangements. Manchester leads with significant projects including the transformation of the historic Boddington Brewery site into Waterhouse Gardens, delivering 556 high-specification residences plus 30,000 square feet of commercial space.

Liverpool's development pipeline centres on the £5.5 billion Liverpool Waters project, creating five distinct neighbourhoods across 500 acres with 2 million square metres of mixed-use space. Additional major schemes include the King's Dock regeneration with anticipated development value exceeding £200 million and the £260 million Anfield Project delivering 1,000 new homes.

Leeds benefits from its strategic position at the heart of major infrastructure investment, transport upgrades, airport enhancements, and mixed‑use commercial schemes, which continue to reinforce the city’s investment fundamentals. In June 2025, average house prices in Leeds reached £238,000, up 5.2 % year‑on‑year, outperforming the broader regional growth rate and reinforcing the city’s appeal for developers seeking reliable rental demand.

International Investor Demand

International investment in Northern England has increased dramatically, with GCC investors now representing 11% of all international UK property enquiries despite the six Gulf countries comprising under 1% of global population. Gulf Business analysis indicates this disproportionate interest reflects Northern England's value proposition compared to London's premium pricing.

Key international investor drivers include:

  • Currency advantages from favourable exchange rates, particularly for US investors

  • Superior rental yields versus London's average and well as lower entry costs

  • Regeneration upside potential from major infrastructure investments

  • Educational investment driven by prestigious universities and graduate retention

Manchester particularly attracts international attention through its technology sector growth and infrastructure investments. Liverpool's international appeal stems from its affordability and regeneration potential, while Leeds attracts investors focused on its strong graduate retention rates and consistent growth patterns.

Regeneration Projects and Infrastructure Investment

Transport infrastructure is a major catalyst for off-market activity. Government announcements regarding the proposed Liverpool-Manchester railway line potentially generate £90 billion economic impact and support 300,000 new homes over 20 years. This missing piece of Northern transport infrastructure could create more than 40,000 jobs by 2050.

Major regeneration investments driving off-market opportunities:

  • Greater Manchester: £2.5 billion Bee Network investment including Metrolink expansion

  • Liverpool Waters: £5.5 billion, mixed-use development programme

  • Northern Infrastructure: £15.6 billion package for transport infrastructure in city regions including Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, the North East, and the East Midlands

  • Carbon Capture: £22 billion investment specifically targeting Northern-based projects

These infrastructure investments create employment opportunities and economic growth supporting sustained property demand. The government's strategy to reduce economic dependence on Southern England directly benefits Northern property markets through enhanced connectivity and job creation.

Understanding these regeneration timelines is crucial for investors considering Manchester investment opportunities for positioning ahead of mainstream market recognition.

Liverpool apartments

What the Numbers Mean for Investors

Practical Interpretation for Different Investor Profiles

The off-market statistics reveal good opportunities for investors willing to manoeuvre private transaction processes. The sector represents substantial liquidity outside traditional property portals.

For First-Time Investors:

  • Liverpool offers exceptional entry-level opportunities with median property values of £174,000 and annual growth of 6.8%

  • HMO investments provide higher yields with corporate lease guarantees reducing management complexity

  • New-build properties eliminate immediate maintenance concerns while offering modern tenant appeal

For Seasoned Investors:

  • Manchester's annual growth trajectory suggests strong appreciation potential for portfolio expansion

  • Bulk purchase opportunities through developer relationships enable portfolio diversification

  • Off-market access provides competitive advantages before opportunities reach mainstream platforms

For International Investors:

  • Northern England's value proposition compared to London pricing enables larger portfolio development

  • Currency advantages and rental yield premiums enhance investment returns for overseas buyers

  • Regeneration project timelines offer strategic positioning opportunities for long-term appreciation

For SIPP Investors:

  • Commercial property and student accommodation qualify for pension fund investment with attractive yields

  • Corporate lease arrangements provide predictable income streams suitable for retirement planning

  • Professional property management services reduce administrative burden for pension trustees

Key Indicators That Areas Are Ripe for Off-Market Deals

Infrastructure investment serves as the primary indicator of emerging off-market opportunities. The £15 billion Northern England infrastructure commitment, including potential Liverpool-Manchester railway lines with £90 billion economic impact, signals long-term value creation preceding widespread market recognition.

Critical indicators for off-market opportunity identification:

  1. Regeneration Project Announcements - Create sustained development pipelines

  2. Graduate Retention Rates - Indicate sustainable rental demand

  3. International Inquiry Patterns - Likely experience increased off-market activity

  4. Technology Sector Clustering - Creates sustained professional housing demand

  5. Policy Change Impacts - Drive sellers toward private transaction control

Transport connectivity improvements provide advance warning of off-market activity. Early-stage development financing announcements signal upcoming off-market opportunities as developers seek pre-sales to reduce project risk.

For anyone seeking to explore off-market investment opportunities, understanding these indicators enables strategic positioning before opportunities become widely available, potentially securing favourable terms and exclusive access to high-potential properties.

Professional guidance through experienced advisors is essential for following off-market processes, from initial sourcing to legal completion. Comprehensive support, including financing arrangements and legal coordination, enables investors to capitalise on time-sensitive off-market opportunities while managing transaction complexity.

Off-market opportunities offer access to properties and terms unavailable through conventional channels, particularly across Northern England's dynamic and rapidly evolving property markets, for those willing to invest the necessary time and resources. If this sounds like you, get in touch and talk to a specialist off-marketing property investment advisor.


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